AUD-USD took out the high of 0.9953 by 10 pips at 0.9963 below been sold off aggressively. Current retracement is heading towards the 55-EMA which is close to the 38.2% retracement level at 0.9800. A close below the 55-EMA on the 4-hourly chart would be the first warning that the bullish is in doubt.
USD-CHF had a marginal high relative to Friday at 0.9883. At any rate, it is still below the 55-EMA though the rebound in yesterday’s session is relatively aggressive. This rebound is now near the 50.0% retracement from 1.0065 to 0.9725 at 0.9895. This level is near the 55-EMA (currently at 0.9897). There is a good chance this rally can be contained there. Having said that, a close above the 55-EMA in the 4-hourly chart would be the first sign that the decline is losing strength. At any rate, price actions from 1.0065 to 0.9725 are corrective in nature which may portends a period of consolidation.
USD-JPY indeed traded to the 50% retracement of 80.23 to 84.39 at 82.31 and reversed sharply. Though unexpected, it is currently just under the 61.85% retracement level of 84.39 to 82.32 at 83.60, having traded as high as 83.65. The short-term outlook is unclear as the MACD is still below the zero signal line while price actions are now above the 55-EMA. Further rally would challenge the high at 84.39 and if so, the overall long-term bearish outlook would have to be reassessed.
GBP-USD on the other hand is faring slightly better relative to EUR-USD having traded as high as 1.5822 before easing. This level is near the high of 1.5836. Further break there would open a cluster of Fibonacci retracement levels; notably the 50.0% and 61.8% retracements of 1.6299 to 1.5484 at 1.5892 and 1.5988 respectively. So far the advance is corrective in nature as was the decline from 1.6299 to 1.5484. This means GBP-USD is largely in consolidation in the long to longer-term outlook. On the downside, the 38.2%, 50.0% and 61.8% retracements of the rise from 1.5484 to 1.5822 at 1.5693, 1.5653 and 1.5613 respectively should contain further weakness besides the short-term support is at 1.5484.
EUR-USD has stayed very much within last Friday’s range; closing below the 38.2% of the rise from 1.2967 to 1.3421 at 1.3248. In the short-term, bias is slightly negative with the possibility of further weakness to the 50.0% and 61.8% of 1.2967 to 1.3421 at 1.3194 and 1.3140 respectively. On the upside, the next target is the 38.2% retracement of 1.4267 and 1.2967 at 1.3464. Further break above this level lay a series of Fibonacci retracement levels at 1.3617 and 1.3770 respectively.
After hitting the 50% retracement level 1.0182 to 0.9537 at 0.986, AUD-USD looks set to challenge the high of 0.9953 next. Yesterday’s retracement is so far limited to the 23.6% retracement of 0.9537 to 0.9937 at 0.9847. Further decline, if any, should be contained above the 55-EMA which is close to the 38.2% retracement level at 0.9874. Sustained rally above 0.9953 would confirm the 3-waves decline from 1.0182 to 0.9537 is completed and AUD-USD is set to challenge its all-time high of 1.0182 and above. On the downside, a close below the 55-EMA on the 4-hourly chart would be the first warning that the bullish is in doubt.
USD-CHF is still solidly below the 55-EMA though the rebound in yesterday’s session is relatively aggressive. This rebound managed slightly better than the 32.8% retracement from 1.0065 to 0.9725 at 0.9873. Further rally, if any, should be contained by the 61.8% retracement at 0.9935 before heading south once again. Having said that, a close above the 55-EMA in the 4-hourly chart would be the first sign that the decline is losing strength. Market bias remains focused on the low of 5 November at 0.9546 and the 14 October low of 0.9453 respectively.
The sharp fall from 84.39/38 halted at 82.52 last Friday and only managed a shallow rebound of 23.6% at 82.93. USD-JPY is noticeably weak since price actions are currently near last Friday’s low of 82.52. The next target is focused on the 50% and 61.8% retracement of 80.23 to 84.39 at 82.31 and 81.82 respectively. The latter is close to the medium-term support at 81.64; a break there would confirm the long-term downtrend has resumed with downside target at the 1995 low of 79.75. On the upside, the 55-EMA should cap any attempt to rally.
From last Friday’s high of 1.5786, which is close to the 38.2% retracement of 1.6299 to 1.5484 at 1.5795, GBP-USD retraced almost 50% of the rise from 1.5484 to 1.5786 at 1.5654. Price actions have since moved back above the 4-hourly 55-EMA which may underpin further rises. Should price actions break above 1.5836 next, a cluster of Fibonacci retracement levels lay ahead; notably the 50.0% and 61.8% retracements of 1.6299 to 1.5484 at 1.5892 and 1.5988 respectively. On the downside, the 50.0% and 61.8% retracements of the rise from 1.5484 to 1.5786 at 1.1.5635 and 1.5599 respectively should contain further weakness besides the short-term support is at 1.5484.
Monday saw EUR-USD retracing some 38.2% of the rise from 1.2967 to 1.3421 at 1.3248. Considering the MACD is now below the signal line, short-term bias is neutral to slightly negative with the possibility of further weakness to the 50.0% and 61.8% of 1.2967 to 1.3421 at 1.3194 and 1.3140 respectively. On the upside, the next target is the 38.2% retracement of 1.4267 and 1.2967 at 1.3464. Further break above this level lay a series of Fibonacci retracement levels at 1.3617 and 1.3770 respectively.
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